Not only is the current growth pace during Trump slower than in 2024 during Biden, but Q3 GDP was also driven by consumer spending and government spending while investment contracted, imports dropped which mathematically boosts GDP, and inflation picked up.
I Disagree that growth is slower under Trump, it will beat 3%. Biden controlled the first 4 weeks of the Trump economy. Also Trump has less deficit spending ($1.78 vs. $1.83 Trillion). The growth gain from deficit spending usually requires increasing deficits to continue; Trump is not getting these. He also cut the trade dedicit 50% and ended the illegal immigration that is cutting US wages.
Help me understand the disagreement? 2.47 is less than 2.8. That’s just… true. There’s no “TDS” or anything there.
On the smaller deficit front: yea, I guess the FY2025 deficit was smaller by about $50 billion than the FY2024 deficit. If we can follow that for another 30 years, we’ll start running a balanced budget! :P
I’m not going to touch on the trade deficit or immigrants vs. wages debate in a comment here. But you can google “David Hebert Trade Deficit” to see what I’ve already written on that.
“Biden controlled this first four weeks of the Trump economy”. Q1 economic growth didn’t tank until late February when Trump began talking about tariffs. If you were able to peel off your so-called Biden first four weeks, the Trump 2025 economy would be worse.
Your analysis is always so logically coherent and informative. Thank you for always delivering such a detailed breakdown of important economic data. A great pre-Christmas read, for sure.
You were correct to redact the part about Q4 being buoyed by holiday spending (since this is accounted for by seasonal adjustment). But you have another similar mistake further down: the nonfarm job openings data you link is also seasonally adjusted. The data is flat after taking into account that there are usually more job openings this time of year.
Ehhhh, yes and no. That one I knew (and recalled, haha) was accounted for by “seasonally adjusted.”
Just eyeballing the figure (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) and going through the months of September-January for a dozen or so random years, “flat” seems strange for late Q3/early Q4. From what I could tell, most years we see continued increases in employment around the same rate of hiring in the summer/early fall months. But this year, it’s tapering off and seems to be doing so pretty quickly. I think that spells something and probably not something good.
The major driver of economic growth is animal spirits. There are strong signs that Trump is ending state capiralism and replacing it with improved TFP.
Good points, @Dave Hebert!
Not only is the current growth pace during Trump slower than in 2024 during Biden, but Q3 GDP was also driven by consumer spending and government spending while investment contracted, imports dropped which mathematically boosts GDP, and inflation picked up.
Tough to keep up this pace with rising demand if supply doesn’t pick up. More here…https://vanceginn.substack.com/p/gdp-growth-isnt-prosperity
I Disagree that growth is slower under Trump, it will beat 3%. Biden controlled the first 4 weeks of the Trump economy. Also Trump has less deficit spending ($1.78 vs. $1.83 Trillion). The growth gain from deficit spending usually requires increasing deficits to continue; Trump is not getting these. He also cut the trade dedicit 50% and ended the illegal immigration that is cutting US wages.
Help me understand the disagreement? 2.47 is less than 2.8. That’s just… true. There’s no “TDS” or anything there.
On the smaller deficit front: yea, I guess the FY2025 deficit was smaller by about $50 billion than the FY2024 deficit. If we can follow that for another 30 years, we’ll start running a balanced budget! :P
I’m not going to touch on the trade deficit or immigrants vs. wages debate in a comment here. But you can google “David Hebert Trade Deficit” to see what I’ve already written on that.
“Biden controlled this first four weeks of the Trump economy”. Q1 economic growth didn’t tank until late February when Trump began talking about tariffs. If you were able to peel off your so-called Biden first four weeks, the Trump 2025 economy would be worse.
Your analysis is always so logically coherent and informative. Thank you for always delivering such a detailed breakdown of important economic data. A great pre-Christmas read, for sure.
Thanks so much!
You were correct to redact the part about Q4 being buoyed by holiday spending (since this is accounted for by seasonal adjustment). But you have another similar mistake further down: the nonfarm job openings data you link is also seasonally adjusted. The data is flat after taking into account that there are usually more job openings this time of year.
Ehhhh, yes and no. That one I knew (and recalled, haha) was accounted for by “seasonally adjusted.”
Just eyeballing the figure (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) and going through the months of September-January for a dozen or so random years, “flat” seems strange for late Q3/early Q4. From what I could tell, most years we see continued increases in employment around the same rate of hiring in the summer/early fall months. But this year, it’s tapering off and seems to be doing so pretty quickly. I think that spells something and probably not something good.
The major driver of economic growth is animal spirits. There are strong signs that Trump is ending state capiralism and replacing it with improved TFP.