EJ Antoni and the BLS
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
I had a tweet absolutely pop off (at least, relative to my normal numbers) last week regarding EJ Antoni being nominated to head up the BLS.
It’s been quoted in places like The New York Times, Axios, and Fortune and I’ve had folks from four other major outlets reach out to me for comment. It’s even been translated into Spanish, French, German, and Vietnamese and shared in those networks.
For a guy that basically only uses X to post links to things I’ve written or media appearances I’ve done, the past 48 hours or so have been absolutely wild. But whatever ridiculousness I’ve experienced this week pales in comparison to the rollercoaster of a ride I’m sure EJ has been experiencing.
Consider this: at 37 years old and only a few years removed from completing his PhD, he’s been nominated by the President of the United States to lead one of the most important Bureaus in Washington, DC. No matter who you are or who the President is, that’s got to be an insane and potentially career-defining phone call. Can you imagine the jubilation that he must have had when that phone call came in?
But then came all the articles and posts on social media. Here are just a few I’ve found that are particularly damning (feel free to post more in the comments):
As if that weren’t enough, we now have evidence that he was at the January 6… event. He claims he was a “bystander” and the photo does give the appearance that he wasn’t really involved. But if you watch the video and pay attention, you’ll notice that he was initially even deeper in the crowd and only started walking away when tear gas was deployed (the photo comes from the 1:52 mark in the video and, with care, you can rewind it and follow EJ back to toward the front).
After the conversations I had yesterday with the reporters, here are the quotes that I sent them (via email):
The question of Dr. Antoni is one of both credibility and ability. From selectively presenting data from particularly convenient dates to misrepresenting axes to exaggerate magnitudes, he has used all the tricks in the book and shown time and again that he is not a credible source of information.
Worse, he has repeatedly shown that he fundamentally misunderstands what some of the data the BLS puts out actually means. It's difficult to imagine someone effectively leading a vital organization like the BLS who cannot correctly define the data they're putting out.
Dr. Antoni has one thing going for him, though: an unquestionable fidelity to President Trump. I have no problem with someone who supports President Trump, but we cannot afford such a partisan person who has neither the credibility nor the ability to generate believable data.
The problem with an appointee like Dr. Antoni is that there is no positive outcome. If the BLS releases data under his leadership saying that the economy is doing great, it won't be believed, which will undermine both his and, more importantly, the BLS's credibility. If they release data that shows anything negative, Antoni will lose his job, just like McEntarfer.
At this point, I feel for the guy. He didn’t ask to become a spectacle on the national and international stages. He didn’t ask to have all of his flaws and weaknesses as an economist exposed so publicly and so widely. And he certainly didn’t ask to become arguably THE paragon of Trump’s penchant to hire “yes men” who will do his bidding.
But. This is the final stage of the game EJ has been playing since at least January: say nice things about Trump and his policies, distort evidence to support your fidelity to Trump, and get rewarded. At some level, he succeeded. However, success often comes at a cost. I sincerely doubt he expected the tremendous cost that would come with succeeding at this game.
It’s unfortunate for him, truly. But the Senate needs to block this nomination and they need to do so decisively to tell Trump to stop nominating people to important positions whose only qualification is their unwavering fidelity to Trump.