Manufacturing Report and Tariffs

Media Hit, 4/17/25

I’m on NewsMax later on today (I’ll edit in the link if/when I get it). I don’t have the topics just yet, but given that the news lately is “tariffs and ______” and that the Philadelphia Fed just released their latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey this morning, I’ve got a pretty good guess as to what we’re going to be talking about.

On to the talking points!

Tariffs

• I’ve got a number of articles that came out this week talking about this:

• It’s time to get away from tariffs as a policy and shift toward President Trump’s other policy goals:

  • Deregulating manufacturing for export

  • Lowering taxes

  • Education reform

• Each of these were promised during his Address to Congress last month and they’re what he should focus on because they actually work.

• A quick fact that my co-author, Tom Savidge, dug up for me: there are now at least 21,000 regulations on the books for companies that want to manufacture for export

• The approval process can take months/years and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

  • Streamlining this would go a long way toward reinvigorating American business.

• On the education reform: we should move away from privileging four year bachelor’s programs and toward providing incentives for e.g. job training for students. College isn’t for everyone nor should it be. But furthering one’s education and skills is for everyone.

Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

• Quick takeaways:

  • Manufacturing output declined

  • General activity, new orders, and shipments all fell and turned negative.

  • Price indexes continue to suggest price increases.

  • Subdued expectations for growth

  • Most firms (39%) report decreases in activity against 13% reporting an increase. The remaining 41% saw no change.

  • Firms continue to report overall price increases

• I wish that this was a surprise. Truly, I do.

• Unfortunately, the only people who can claim to be surprised by this are those who do not understand international trade. Even more unfortunately, a disproportionate number of those people work in the White House and the Administration.

So What Happened?

I got bumped at the last minute! Given some new developments in the education space, namely a whole bunch of states and Universities threatening/pursuing legal action against the Trump Administration is more newsy than once again talking about tariffs and manufacturing.

C’est la vie.

At any rate, I got to read stuff I probably wouldn’t have read and it’s fueled some ideas for writing for today, so I’ve got no real complaints. And I can change out of my shirt/tie/suit and get back into comfortable clothes sooner, which I will NEVER complain about!