Tariffs, Negotiations, and Delays
Media Hit #1 for 2/3/25
Today, I have two segments on NewsMax. The first is their National Report at 11:15 or so this morning and the second is for NewsMax+ at 1:15. Both segments are about “tariffs” and, as of this writing (10:30 AM) there are no specific links - though if we’re being honest, who needs one at this point? You can just turn on the TV or open any newspaper and it’ll probably be front page news.
Talking Points
I think it’s fair to say that Trump has done a lot of positive things in the first two weeks of his administration.
We might debate about the process by which he has done those things or the general approach/tone he’s taken, but on net, they seem to be positives for the country.
However, tariffs remain an ineffective means of achieving the goals that Trump has laid out.
They will not lead to prices for consumers coming down: they’ll increase.
They will not lead to higher incomes for American workers: they’ll fall.
They will not lead to greater job growth: they’ll inhibit it.
They will not lead to the reshoring of American industry: they’ll lead to more offshoring.
They will not lead to a reduction in the trade deficit: they’ll increase it.
Their potential for revenue generation has been massively over stated.
We’re looking at maybe $100 billion/year in new revenues. Drop in the bucket compared to Congress’s $7 trillion budget, the $1.9 trillion deficit for this year, and the $36.2 trillion national debt.
History has shown all of this to be true time and again. There are mountains of evidence to support these positions and virtually no evidence to support the claims that Trump is making vis-a-vis tariffs.
This also isn’t a matter of opinion or something that a skilled negotiator can address.
The laws of economics are not up for negotiation, even from someone who is probably the best president at negotiating in all of US history
(Ok, I don’t actually know if that’s true, but hey, I’ll give it to him since it only makes my case stronger)
This leaves me with two conclusions:
Either Trump has the worst economic advisors on the planet
OR there’s some other reason why Trump is choosing to pursue tariffs at this time, especially against Canada and Mexico, that he’s not sharing with the American public.
I’m skeptical of both of these claims, but I’m having a hard time finding a third explanation.
What I’m going to be doing is paying very close attention to what Trump says about tariffs and how the US economy reacts to them over the next 6-12 months.
This has serious implications for the overall tone of the midterm election cycle.
So What Happened?
Naturally, tariff policy changed as I was sitting in the waiting room to go on, so that’s cool. Thankfully, while you’re in the waiting room, you get a live feed of what’s on air (actually, on-air has a 15 second delay, so I see it before it’s on air!) and they were talking about these changes with Michigan Representative Jack Bergman. It’s also the case that one of the anchors mentioned that the UAW was supportive of strong tariffs against Canada and Mexico, so I knew not to go into that with my answers. I’ve learned to not directly contradict the host, especially when they’re in control of who gets the final word!
For the 11:30 segment, I was joined on air by Brandon Arnold, the Executive Vice President of the National Taxpayers Union. He made some great points and it was really, really nice to be on air with someone making the same basic argument: that tariffs are not good for the US economy.
In light of the new information, I had to go a bit off the cuff. I did give credit to Trump for using tariffs as an effective negotiating tool against Columbia and now Mexico, which I think is only fair. But I also cautioned that the threat of tariffs are less likely to work against larger economies that are less dependent on access to the US market, e.g. China.
What I think I’ll try to work in for the later segment on NewsMax+ is the idea that all of this political uncertainty (will there be tariffs or not and if so, when?) is wreaking havoc on markets and businesses. It’s really hard to plan ahead when everything is changing so wildly and so dramatically.
But for now, I’ve got to get the house ready for the HVAC person to come. I foolishly thought I could install a new thermostat by myself yesterday. Turns out, we have a “communicating thermostat.” I have absolutely no idea what that means other than, “if Dave touches it, it stops working.” There’s been no heat in my house for 24 hours now. Thankfully, we just got a whole bunch of insulation put in so the house was never cold (bottomed out at 60ish degrees) and the kids and I were able to go sleep at grandma’s house last night (Julie needed to sleep at home because of her work schedule). Hopefully, we get everything up and running today and all goes back to normal. And hopefully it’s not too expensive to un-screw-up the things that Dave screwed up!