I’m on The National Desk this afternoon (Tuesday, 2/4) talking about (you guessed it) tariffs. A lot of my talking points will remain the same as yesterday/last night, which makes things easier on my end.
Here are the prompts I’ve gotten in advance:
China hits back as Trump’s tariffs go into effect
Trump to speak with Xi after hiking tariffs.
Trump pauses tariffs on Mexico and Canada
Let’s go through them one-by-one
China Hits Back
Here’s a good link to summarize what’s going on. The gist of it is that tariffs on American imports into China are rising. This does not bode well for the US.
The truth of the matter is that China’s international trade is much more diversified and much less dependent on the US than Columbia, Mexico, and Canada.
Because of this, they are much less likely to be in a weak position compared to the US and to need to capitulate to US demands.
The sad truth is that this is not the first time the US has “gotten tough” with China. We’ve used tariffs for at least the past 25 years to try to get them to change their tune and that we’re still having this discussion is evidence that this has not been an effective strategy.
Trump to Speak with Xi
Look, Trump is telling us and the rest of the world that there will be tariffs imposed on them. As a result, businesses around the world take that into consideration going forward.
He even says that these are not negotiating tools, that there’s no way to avoid them, and that they’re coming for sure.
But then… he has a phone call and he’s able to work out any differences.
All that this does is serve to increase uncertainty in the business community.
If Trump is bluffing on this, that’s one thing. But even if he’s not, it’s only a matter of time before the bluff gets called and he’s forced to actually do it.
When that happens, it’s the American people who will be right in the crosshairs:
Lower wages, higher prices, reduced job growth, higher debts, and more government bailouts, just like we saw him do with the farmers.
Pausing Tariffs on Mexico and Canada
Same talking points as the last post:
Recall that Trump promised that universal tariffs would be a Day One accomplishment.
Then, he announced that he was going to impose a tariff on Canada and Mexico, two of our closest trading partners, over the weekend and that there was “nothing” Canada and Mexico could do to avoid them.
Turns out, that was not true.
All of this raises uncertainty in the eyes of businesses around the world.
Will there be tariffs?
If so, when, how severe, against which countries, and on what products?
This uncertainty does not bode well for American businesses and certainly not for the American workers.
And now he’s saying that he’s going to go after the UK and the EU.
So all he’s doing now is creating even more uncertainty!
So What Happened?
Oh boy, where to start? The short version is that I really, really don’t think that the hosts liked having me on their show. I’m trying desperately to find a clip of it, but I can’t seem to find it anywhere online at this point despite them posting clips from later in the day already. I’m beginning to think that I’m not going to find it, which is a shame because it was one where I really felt like I was on the entire time. Everything was breaking my way, I was able to respond back to their follow up questions and their (explicit) attempts to “push back” on what I said. At one point, the question I got was something along the lines of, “are you some kind of free market economist? Help me figure out where you’re coming from.” I didn’t answer the question directly, instead saying, “look, what matters isn’t whether I’m a ‘free market economist or not,’ what matters is what history and evidence say. Both are clear: tariffs have not worked over the past 25 years when trying to negotiate with China. I agree that there are serious problems that we have with China that need addressing [the host listed several and they were pretty sensible - nothing like “they’re stealing our jobs!” or anything like that], but the question I’m talking about here is whether or not tariffs are an effective tool at accomplishing those goals. And the unfortunate reality is that the answer seems like a resounding ‘no.’ We need to look at using a different tool from our vast toolkit instead, preferably one that doesn’t put the American worker and American consumer in the crosshairs.”
Now look, *I* think it went really well. But I’m biased and I haven’t been able to watch the clip back yet. We’ll see if I get invited back on their program again in the future.