I’m on NewsMax this evening (5:00) to talk tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. This time, it’s with Richard Stern of the Heritage Foundation. I’ve been on with him before, though I forget what we were on talking about. I suspect that we’re going to be disagreeing with one another, given that past October, Richard wrote an article title, The Art of the Tariff Deal.
If I’m being honest, these types of articles frustrate me. They’re just too wishy-washy and they’re written in such a way that the author can never be wrong. The main thrust of his article is that tariffs can be used “destructively and constructively,” that their success depends on how they’re implemented, and on other exigent circumstances that are never well-defined. In making this argument, if the tariffs fail to achieve their intended result, the author can say, “see, I was right - we implemented them wrong!” If they work, the author can say, “see, I was right - we implemented them correctly!” So either way, the author can claim that they were right! While this is great in situations where “being wrong” is viewed negatively, it’s also just… frustrating.
There’s certainly room for this type of argument in today’s society and it is, in all honesty, probably accurate. But what I like to do is to 1) acknowledge the uncertainty that we all face but still 2) make a “most likely” prediction.
So when it comes to e.g. China, is it possible that the tariffs Trump is talking about could work? I mean, the answer has to be “yes” when asked that question.
But are they likely to work?
And here, I think the answer is a pretty clear “no,” which is the answer that I like to give in these types of settings. Admittedly, this does make it harder for me, since I have to be better prepared and ready to argue against people, but that just makes it more fun, not less.
So here are my talking points that I’ll have in my back pocket:
General thoughts on tariffs
Trump is not the first president to impose tariffs on China to try to get them to “behave.”
Bush imposed tariffs on Chinese steel in 2002.
Obama did it on tires in 2009
Trump (famously) on steel and aluminum in 2017/2018
Biden re-upped Trump’s tariffs and added new ones.
Trump does it again in 2025
If tariffs against China really worked as Trump and his acolytes allege, then surely they would have worked at some point in the last 25 years, right?
But as I wrote here, The US Trade Representative reported that China has “persisted and even become more aggressive.”
This does not sound like “winning” to me.
Further, the simple fact that we’re having this conversation at all right now stands as evidence that this hasn’t been a winning strategy.
The reason is simple: China has much more diverse international relationships than, e.g. Columbia, Mexico, and Canada. Threatening the economic relationship between the US and these countries would be devastating to them. But China can easily just say, “ok, we’ll find another buyer of our stuff” and “ok, we’ll find another seller for the things we want to buy.”
Further, as the world becomes more interconnected, the dependence of other countries on the US will almost certainly wane, further decreasing the efficacy of tariffs as a negotiation tool.
Canada and Mexico capitulating
I did get a link for an article at about 3:45 PM today, so I’ll add some notes on that, too.
Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14356623/canada-donald-trump-tariffs-border-trudeau.html
Again, it’s perfectly fine to call this a “win” if you want to.
I’m not going to wade into the waters of “is this different from what Trudeau promised to do back in December or not.”
But the question remains as to whether this is a strategy that can win against other countries.
It would be foolish to call this a failure here, but as to whether it can be used against e.g. China is in serious doubt.
So What Happened?
Well, I had audio issues for the first time ever, so that was embarrassing. I suppose it happens but I feel absolutely horrible. The worst part is that I honestly don’t even know what went wrong. I’ll fully admit that my setup is probably more complicated than it needs to be - I use a Røde Wireless Go II with a lav mic plugged into the transmitter since that’s what I have lying around from my days of teaching remote during COVID. I would absolutely love to move over to a non-wireless mic, but those cost money and I already have this lying around.
So the audio issues were weird. Everything worked fine once I reconnected and switched my microphone to my built-in mic on the computer. Obviously, this is better than no audio, but it’s nowhere near as good as the audio is from my normal setup.
As you saw, I was prepared to talk tariffs. And I was particularly excited throughout the opening parts of the segment because the host was just setting up a “don’t you think tariffs are great, Dave?” type question.
In the end, I got asked a question about the Panama Canal and how they evidently eliminated the fees that US ships pay to go through them. This was news to me, so I didn’t have anything really ready to go and got caught somewhat flat-footed. I ended up saying, “look, any time US ships get to reduce their costs, that can only bode well for the American people” and left it at that.
All in all, definitely my least favorite news segment that I’ve ever done. A missed opportunity.